Opinion: Is There A Saudi Cameo In The Israel-Hamas Deal?

If talks go well, the death machines will fall silent in West Asia, or at least Gaza, on Sunday. The US and Qatar have reportedly brokered a deal between Israel and Hamas to end the war.

It's been a long wait for the misery to end. The killings began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas fighters from Gaza attacked Israel on a Jewish holiday. They went about indiscriminately shooting and kidnapping unsuspecting civilians and some soldiers. The worst attack was on a music festival where hundreds of young Israelis were partying. All of it streamed live by the attackers' body-mounted cameras. By the time Israeli forces took out the last gunmen, the body count had topped 1,200. Over 250 hostages were carried across to Gaza to be stashed away in a subterranean maze where they remained undiscovered even after the whole house was burnt down.

Perhaps the most dramatic and horrific cross-border assault on any country since the Mumbai terror attacks of 2008, it triggered such a display of overwhelming force that it left the world aghast. The shockwaves have left the regional map perceptibly different. It has riven apart communities and split institutions. The scars run so deep that they will not heal in a very long time. It has also laid bare the remarkable pragmatism bordering on chutzpah of the Arab nations.

Reduced To Rubble 

According to multiple reports, nearly 46,000 Gazans, a substantial number of them women and children, have perished in the 15-month war. Most of Gaza has been flattened and rendered uninhabitable. Israel is estimated to have demolished over 1,61,600 homes and damaged 1,94,000 other civil structures. More than 1.9 million of the 2.2 million Gazans have become refugees, most of them corralled into a tiny corner in the north of the Strip. More than 1,000 medical facilities have been destroyed; Rafah does not have a single hospital. The economic loss is estimated at $37 billion. 

Hamas was decapitated when its political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, where he had gone to attend the inauguration ceremony for Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Its director of war, Yahya Sinwar, was killed in Gaza last year, just after the first anniversary of the Hamas attack. A video of a dying Sinwar defiantly throwing a piece of wood at an Israeli military drone indicated that Hamas would not back down despite the carnage. By the end of 2024, Israel had spent over $67 billion on war. It had cost the United States nearly $23 billion until September 2024. Yet, about a hundred Israelis remain hostages somewhere in the ruins, or, more likely, under the ground. 

The Deal

So, what is the new acceptable middle ground in the new deal that the failed talks since the first successful one in November of 2023 could not find? After all, the original objective of the war—freeing hostages—was not achieved. Not only that, Israel will release over 1,000 Palestinians, including those arrested after October 7 and presumably Hamas fighters, in a prisoner exchange. That means while thousands of innocent Gazans, including women and children, paid for the Hamas attack with their lives, its fighters may yet return, alive, prison-hardened, and ready to fight another day. 

On December 20, 2024, American journalist Seymour Hersh—famous for blowing the lid off a cover-up of a massacre of the villagers of My Lai in Vietnam by US troops in the 1960s—wrote that an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal was in the works. The contours of the just-announced deal are nearly identical to that in his report.  One crucial piece of information, which was not in the deal made public but available in Hersh's Israeli source-based account, was the role of Saudi Arabia and the quid pro quos. Hersh wrote that as per the deal—reportedly made possible after incoming US President Donald Trump shook his fist at the belligerent Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—the US would extend its nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia if Iran gets hold of a nuke. In return, Saudi will fund the reconstruction of Gaza, look away when Israeli warplanes raid Syria, and allow its once-arch rival access to an airfield inside its territory. 

When Iran hit Israel with a barrage of missiles after it assassinated Hezbollah leader Nasrallah and killed scores of others in a “pager attack”, Tel Aviv had to precisely plan its retaliation because of the distance its fighter planes would have had to cover to reach targets deep inside enemy territory. Those targets would be minutes away if the planes were to launch from Saudi Arabia, however. So, the Israeli hostages, who have now spent over 460 days in captivity, paid the price for Tel Aviv to have a closer shot at Iran. 

The Aftermath

Almost all conflicts in West Asia in the past over 50 years somehow link back to the Palestine issue and a still-pending two-state solution. Palestine-trained activists and revolutionaries helped overthrow the Shah in Iran in 1979. That regime has since helped create multiple armed groups in the region, including Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis.  

While the Saudi aspect—if it exists—of the ceasefire deal may eventually be revealed, it is clear that the US and major powers in the Gulf have decided to militarily ring-fence Iran. While the regime change in Syria with tacit support from Turkey has broken the Iran-Russia supply-and-support link, Israel has crushed Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel, the US and the UK have jointly carried out air raids on the Yemen-based Houthis, another Iran-backed group, whose attacks on ships passing through the Red Sea have disrupted global trade. What would be next? A regime change in Iran? Perhaps that will be property tycoon-turned-diplomat Steve Witkoff's next assignment. 

(Dinesh Narayanan is a Delhi-based journalist and author of 'The RSS And The Making Of The Deep Nation'.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

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नाम सुनते ही राहा कपूर का क्यूट रिएक्शन वायरल, पैपराजी पर की फ्लाइंग Kiss की बरसात तो फैंस ने भी रणबीर-आलिया की बेटी पर लुटाया प्यार

तैमूर और जेह के बाद कपूर्स का एक और नेक्स्ट जनरेशन किड सुर्खियां बटोर रहा है. ये किड हैं नन्हीं सी राहा कपूर. जो इन दिनों सोशल मीडिया सहित पैपराजी की फेवरेट बनी हुई हैं. कैमरे की लैंस को क्यूट राहा से जितना प्यार है. राहा का रिएक्शन भी उतना ही वॉर्म और क्यूट रहा है. हाल ही में जब कुछ कैमरा पर्सन राहा के आसपास पहुंचे. तो, जिस अंदाज में राहा ने उन्हें रिस्पॉन्स दिया उसे देखकर न सिर्फ कैमरा पर्सन का बल्कि आम लोगों का दिल भी खुश हो जाएगा. राहा के रिएक्शन पर आलिया भट्ट भी हंसती हुई नजर आईं.

राहा का क्यूट रिएक्शन

इतनी कम उम्र में भी राहा भीड़ में घिरने पर या आसपास कैमरों की भीड़ होने के बाद भी कंफर्टेबल ही रहती हैं. हाल ही में उनका ऐसा ही एक वीडियो वायरल हुआ था. इस वीडियो में राहा आलिया भट्ट की गोदी में दिख रही हैं. पास ही रणबीर कपूर भी नजर आ रहे हैं. अचानक आसपास से राहा राहा नाम की आवाजें सुनाई देती हैं. आवाज देने वाले राहा से बाय कहते हैं. जवाब में राहा भी बहुत क्यूट अंदाज में पलट कर कहती हैं बाय और हाथ से वेव भी करती हैं. राहा के इस अंदाज पर आलिया भट्ट की भी हंसी छूट जाती है.

राहा ने दी फ्लाइंग किस

राहा के इस क्यूट रिएक्शन को देखने के बाद लोग ये भी कहते हैं राहा लव यू, लव यू. ये सुनकर राहा और क्यूटली रिस्पॉन्स देती हैं. वो पैपराजी की तरफ मुंह करके फ्लाइंग किस भी करती हैं. उनकी इस हरकत पर एक बार फिर उनकी मम्मी आलिया हंस पड़ती हैं. उसके बाद आलिया भट्ट कपूर भी कैमरा पर्सन की तरफ देख कर वेव करती हैं. इस से पहले भी राहा के ऐसे वीडियो वायरल होते रहे हैं. जिसमें वो बहुत प्यार से पैपराजी को रिस्पॉन्स देती हैं. उन का ये क्यूट अंदाज सोशल मीडिया पर भी रणबीर कपूर और आलिया भट्ट के फैन्स को बहुत पसंद आता है.

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Opinion: Trump's Return Has Exposed Europe's Weaknesses

Europe had experienced a great deal of heat from Donald Trump during his first term as president. He had cast doubt on the continuing relevance of NATO, viewed it as a financial burden on the US because the Europeans were not spending enough on their own defence, and demanded that they spend 2% of their GDP on defence. He showed his disdain towards the EU by supporting Brexit.

The belief that Russia had interfered in the US presidential election in Trump's favour had created misgivings that he might pursue a more flexible policy towards Moscow over the Ukraine conflict. His right-wing, nationalistic political orientation clashed with Europe's left-leaning liberalism. His Make America Great Again (MAGA) slogan created anxiety as it was considered inward-looking, protectionist and tending towards isolationism. European politicians were concluding that Europe and Trump's America no longer shared the same values.

Can Europe Cope?

Trump has now come back to power with a thumping majority. The Republicans have also won control of both houses of the US Congress. Trump is undoubtedly convinced that his re-election, despite all the legal and other efforts of the Democrats to disqualify and prevent him from fighting the election, has vindicated his proclaimed domestic and foreign policy agendas. Europe and others will have to cope with the unpredictability, impetuousness and self-assertion of this maverick president.

Trump, even before his inauguration, has put Europe under stress by his power play in questioning the continent's territorial integrity by laying claim to Greenland. During his first term, too, he had laid his eyes on Greenland, but this time ,he is brazen about acquiring it on grounds of “national security” and access to its natural resources such as oil, gas, lithium etc. Trump has threatened to pursue his claim with economic coercion or use of force, if necessary, as he considers ownership of Greenland an “absolute necessity”.

The president-elect clearly wants the US to become a major Arctic power in anticipation of the melting of the Arctic ice, which would open up a vital trade route between Europe/Asia and the Americas and allow mining of the oceans' rich resources of oil, gas and other minerals as well. At present, Russia dominates the Arctic geographically, and China is eyeing it too for its potential for trade connectivity. This is reminiscent of the ruthless great power politics of the 19th century.

This attack on Europe's territorial integrity puts Europe against the wall. Its dependence on the US for its security provides it no real option to resist. The response of European leaders has been to temporise and avoid challenging Trump head-on. The Danish prime minister recognises America's “security concerns”, while also stating that Greenland is not up for sale. The US already has a military base in Greenland, which can be expanded, and hence, the argument of security concerns seems debatable. The autonomous Greenland government has made hedging statements. The German Chancellor has resorted to a non-specific statement to the effect that the “inviolability of borders applies to all”. The French foreign minister has avoided mentioning the US by name while remarking that the EU would “not let other nations of the world attack its sovereign borders, whoever they are”.

Lost For Answers

The European Commission has refused to “go into the specifics” when asked to comment on Trump's claims. Van der Leyen, the head of the European Commission and Antonia Costa, the head of the European Council, stated evasively that the “EU will always protect our citizens and the integrity of our democracies and freedoms” and, rather pointlessly, that “we look forward to a positive engagement with the incoming US administration, based on our common values and shared interests. In a rough world, Europe and the US are stronger together”.

Europe is embarrassed and does not quite know how to respond adequately. Its geopolitical weakness has been exposed, diminishing its status as a collective power. It sees itself threatened by Russian power from the East and now by American power from the West—one an enemy and the other an ally. In Russia's case—which is unlike that of the US seeking to seize Greenland—it is not a territory belonging to an EU state that is being annexed or under threat of annexation. The message from all this is that Europe is unable to look after its own security. It depends on US-led NATO for protection, but it is the leader of NATO that is weakening NATO solidarity, with an uncomfortable message that Trump's America sees Europe as quasi-dispensable.

A Double Bind

The quandary for Europe is that if it were to react strongly and decide to condemn the US territorial bid, it would need an internal consensus, and seeking one could divide NATO. The NATO edifice, which is considered vital for Europe's security by member states, especially in East and Central Europe, could well begin to crack, given Trump's known disdain for the transatlantic alliance. A strong anti-US reaction could also weaken Europe politically against Russia. Europe's no-holds-barred discourse against Russia for seeking to annex the territory of a sovereign state and allegedly altering the map of Europe for the first time since the Second World War, as against a compliant attitude towards the US for a somewhat similar goal, could well become unsustainable.

Europe's problem is that it cannot build its security simply on the basis of countries increasing their defence budgets individually. The smaller European countries—and there are many—increasing their defence budgets means little. To be autonomously secure, Europe needs to rely on its own arms industry, European countries to buy European-produced arms, and Europe to have some kind of a centralised European chain of command. This will require a deepening of the EU as a sovereign entity, on which there is no political consensus amongst Europeans.

As things are, European security has remained frozen in the Cold War matrix, with Russia being an enduring threat and the US standing as a bulwark against it. Although France and the UK are nuclear powers, their nuclear umbrellas are not politically acceptable to many European countries. They would prefer to rely only on the US nuclear umbrella, especially in the face of Russia's formidable nuclear arsenal.

Narrative Wars

European public opinion could get confused if tensions between the EU and the US over the Greenland issue become acrimonious, and could well begin to affect public attitudes towards Russia, with mounting support for some compromise with Russia over Ukraine instead of a complete refusal to engage in a dialogue with Moscow. The discourse, in some circles, could well turn into one of US imperialism versus Russian imperialism.

On the Ukraine issue, Trump's repeated declarations on engaging in a dialogue with Russia to find a solution, the statement by the incoming US National Security Adviser that Russia cannot be expelled from all the territory it holds, and the implied message that Ukraine will have to yield territory, as well as talk of arranging a Trump-Putin meeting, are huge political blows to Europe, whose leadership has persistently demonised Russia and Putin and closed doors to any dialogue with Moscow. Trump is upending Europe's position of complete alignment with the Biden administration's position on the Ukraine conflict. There is reported concern in Brussels that Trump may lift some sanctions on Russia as part of a potential deal.

Other than security issues, Trump's presidency could increase economic pressures on the EU. This will come in addition to the economic costs paid by the EU because of Ukraine-related economic sanctions on Russia. During his first term, Trump had targeted Germany for its mercantilist trade policies. Germany's current economic woes add to Europe's vulnerability to US economic pressures.

Clash Of Values

Trump's personal deep antipathy to ‘wokeism', DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) and gender identity issues will be another clash of “values” with Europe. Elon Musk, who is amplifying many of Trump's political and social views, has already become a major headache for the European political class. He is openly interfering in European politics by, for instance, supporting the right-wing nationalist party (AfD) in Germany, and the right-wing Reform Party in the UK. He has brutally targeted prime minister Keith Starmer on the “grooming gangs” scandal, calling him “complicit in the rape of Britain”. Vice-president-elect J.D.Vance has also attacked the UK over not suppressing Islamism in the country. Trump Jr has joined in criticising the Labour Party too. This bodes ill for the US-UK special relationship.
 
All in all, Europe's dependence on the US and its limited margin of manoeuvre have been brutally exposed with Trump's coming ascension to the White House.

(Kanwal Sibal was Foreign Secretary and Ambassador to Turkey, Egypt, France and Russia, and Deputy Chief Of Mission in Washington.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

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Vlogger Sits On Top Of Moving Ford Mustang In Gurugram, Lands In Custody

A vlogger in Gurugram sat on a moving car's bonnet to make videos for his social media accounts, landing him and his accomplices in police custody.

Videos were shot by Krishna, whose social media handles are named Babajani Vlogs, and his team at the underpass near the Rapid Metro station in Gurugram's Cyber City. While the resident of Gurugram's Chhakkarpur village sat on the bonnet of a red Ford Mustang, his team shot the video from a Scorpio.

As the reel went viral on social media, it also came to the notice of the police. Krishna and his team were traced by the DLF Phase 1 police based on the vehicles' registration numbers.

While Krishna and his team of three were rounded up by the police, the two vehicles were also seized. Later, Krishna apologised on video and urged people not to be influenced by his stunts.

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Opinion: This Is How Much Tax India's Middle Class Really Pays

As Budget Day approaches, the debate over how the middle class, particularly the salaried class, bears the country's tax burden has gained momentum. With only a small number of individual taxpayers shouldering most of the weight, calls for much-needed relief have grown louder.

The number of tax returns filed by individuals has more than doubled, from 3.35 crore in 2013-14 to 7.54 crore in 2023-24. However, many individuals file zero-tax returns merely for compliance purposes. The number of individuals filing zero-income tax returns has also more than doubled, from 1.69 crore to 4.73 crore during the same period. On the other hand, the number of individuals actually paying income taxes has increased from 1.66 crore in 2013-14 to 2.81 crore in 2023-24.

In September 2019, the government announced a reduction in the base corporate tax rate for existing companies to 22% (from 30%) and for new manufacturing firms incorporated after October 1, 2019, to 15% (from 25%). Following this announcement, corporate income tax (CIT) collections have fallen relative to personal income tax (PIT) collections. The PIT-to-CIT ratio, which was 0.7x from 2000-10 to 2019-20, has increased to 1.1x from 2020-21 to 2024-25 (budgeted).

Corporate income tax collections have grown from Rs. 5.56 lakh crore in 2019-20 to Rs. 10.2 lakh crore in 2024-25, an increase of 83%. During the same period, personal income tax collection grew from Rs. 4.92 lakh crore to Rs. 11.87 lakh crore, an increase of 141%.

Individuals Contribute Generously To GST

Annual GST collections in India range from Rs. 18 lakh crore to Rs. 20 lakh crore. The government does not provide a breakdown showing the respective shares of individuals and corporations in this pie. But, since corporations can claim input tax credits for goods or services purchased for business purposes, the majority of GST collections are accounted for by individuals.

Five states account for more than half of the total GST collections. Maharashtra holds the largest share at 21.2%, followed by Karnataka at 9.3%, Gujarat at 8.4%, and Tamil Nadu at 8.2%. Uttar Pradesh ranks fifth, with a share of 6.8% in 2023. All of these states except Uttar Pradesh have urbanisation levels higher than the national average of 31.1%, according to the 2011 census. This effectively means that GST collections are higher in urban areas, where India's middle class predominantly resides.

The Extent Of The Actual Tax Burden 

Three examples illustrate the heavy burden the middle class shoulders.

• For an individual who earns Rs. 10 lakh and saves 30% (the national savings rate), the tax outgo, assuming an average GST rate of 15% on consumption, could be close to Rs. 1.6 lakh. That is 16% of the total income. If the same person saves 15% of their income, the outgo would be 18%, and 20% if there is no saving at all.
• If an individual earns Rs. 20 lakh in income and saves 30%, assuming an average GST rate on their expenditure of 18%, he will pay Rs. 3.1 lakh in income tax under the new tax regime and Rs. 2 lakh in GST on consumption expenditure. The total tax paid would be Rs. 5.1 lakh, or 25% of the income. If this person saves 15%, the total tax burden would come to around  28%, and, in case of no savings, it will be closer to 31%.
• Assuming an individual earns Rs. 1 crore and saves 30%, then, with an average GST rate of 23% on consumption expenditure, the tax burden, both direct and indirect, will be nearly Rs 40 lakh, or 40% of the income. If the same person saves 15%, the tax incidence will go up to 43%, and, in case of no savings, the burden will shoot up to 47%.

The middle class has long been treated as a cash cow by successive governments, and there is a growing demand for fair treatment, including tax breaks, incentives for vehicle and home purchases, and parity with corporations in terms of deductions. At a time when household savings are at their lowest and wage increases by corporations are insufficient to cover inflation, some relief is warranted for the middle class.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author 

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उर्वशी रौतेला ने फिर किया 64 साल के हीरो के साथ वही हुकस्टेप, जिसके लिए पहले हुईं ट्रोल, लोग बोले- डांस ये कर रहे हैं शर्म हमें...

NBK उर्फ नंदमुरी बालाकृष्णा का कॉन्ट्रोवर्सी से पुराना नाता है. जहां उनके इवेंट के दौरान एक्ट्रेस को धक्का मारने का वीडियो चर्चा में रहा था तो वहीं हाल ही में रिलीज हुई उनकी लेटेस्ट फिल्म डाकू महाराज के डबीबी गाने में उर्वशी रौतेला के साथ हुक स्टेप के चलते वह चर्चा में आ गए थे. इसी बीच उनका एक और वीडियो चर्चा का विषय बन गया है, जो डाकू महाराज की सक्सेस पार्टी का है. चौंकाने वाली बात यह है कि वह एक बार फिर ट्रोल हुए गाने डबीबी के हुक स्टेप को उर्वशी रौतेला के साथ करते हुए नजर आ रहे हैं. 

वीडियो को उर्वशी रौतेला ने शेयर किया है, जिसमें उन्होंने कैप्शन दिया, हमारी फिल्म डाकू महाराज और डबीबी डबीबी गाने के सुपर सक्सेस बैश. आप लोगों की शुक्रगुजार हूं. क्लिप की बात करें तो एक्ट्रेस साड़ी में नजर आ रही हैं तो वहीं एनबीके ब्लू शर्ट और डेनिम में दिख रहे हैं. 

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क्लिप में आगे दोनों हाथों में हाथ डाले डांस करते हैं. जबकि आगे एक्टर को डबीबी के हुक स्टेप को करते हुए देखा जा सकता है. वहीं दोनों स्टार्स मुस्कुराते हुए नजर आते हैं. इस वीडियो को देखते ही लोगों ने रिएक्शन दिया है. एक यूजर ने लिखा, डांस ये कर रहे हैं शर्म मुझे आ रही है. दूसरे यूजर ने लिखा, सो नाइस नेशनल क्रश. तीसरे यूजर ने लिखा, डाकू महाराज को सफलता के लिए हार्दिक शुभकामनाएं....मैं भगवान से प्रार्थना करता हूं कि यह फिल्म ऊंचाइयों तक पहुंचे...

गौरतलब है कि डाकू महाराज को रिलीज हुए अभी एक दिन हुआ है. 12 जनवरी को सिनेमाघरों में रिलीज हुई फिल्म ने भारत में 22 करोड़ की ओपनिंग हासिल की है. जबकि अभी फिल्म का बजट 100 करोड़ का है, जिससे फिल्म अभी दूर है. 

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Wedding At 200-Year-Old Temple In Madhya Pradesh Sparks Row, Probe On

A wedding held at a 200-year-old temple in Madhya Pradesh's Indore has caused a row, prompting the authorities to order a probe into the matter, officials said on Monday. According to officials, the wedding took place on Sunday at Gopal Mandir in the Rajbada area of the city. The temple has been renovated under the Centre's Smart City project.

Eyewitnesses said the temple premises were decorated for the ceremony, Vedic marriage rituals were performed, and there was a feast for guests.

Locals have alleged that devotees and visitors were inconvenienced, and traffic was also disrupted near the temple.

Photographs from the event have surfaced on social media, with people raising questions about how permission was granted for a wedding at the temple, which was part of the city's heritage.

A photograph of a receipt has also surfaced on social media, which mentions that one Rajkumar Agrawal paid Rs 25,551 to the Sansthan Shri Gopal Mandir, the organisation managing this temple, in connection with the wedding. The receipt with a government seal is dated July 29, 2024.

Officials said an additional district magistrate (ADM) has been ordered to probe the matter.

Indore Smart City Development Limited's chief executive officer (CEO) Divyank Singh said the 19th-century Holkar-era Gopal Mandir was renovated under the Smart City project for Rs 13 crore.

Historian Zafar Ansari said the temple was built by Rajmata Krishna Bai Holkar in 1832 at a cost of Rs 80,000.

"Gopal Mandir was a major centre of charitable activities, especially during the reign of the Holkars. It is unfortunate a wedding ceremony was organised in this temple. Such events can damage this historical heritage," Ansari said. 

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